First reported 2026-09-29 by TrendForce
TrendForce Lifts 2027 HBM ASP Forecast to +121%; HBM4 Stack Seen Doubling to ~$1,300
TrendForce, in a Sept. 29 report, raised its 2027 HBM blended average selling price forecast to a 121% year-on-year increase, citing persistent supply shortage, a rising mix of HBM4 and expanded HBM4E output in 2H27. Industry estimates cited by Seoul Economic Daily put a 12-high 36GB HBM4 stack at roughly $1,300 next year versus about $600 this year, while Micron stated on its FQ4 call that it has already committed more than 75% of FY2027 shipment volume at prices well above 2026 levels.
With all three suppliers effectively sold out into 2027 and HBM absorbing a third of DRAM wafer capacity, memory is becoming the dominant and least negotiable line in the AI accelerator BOM. Accelerator OEMs and hyperscalers face structurally higher per-unit memory cost through 2028 unless HBM4 yields and new fab capacity ramp faster than currently guided.
Model the impact — HBM4 $600 → $1,300 per 36GB stack for 2027 ($36.11/GB, contract, per stack)
Computed from Silicon Analysts’ published cost models for AI accelerator BOMs. The stated price replaces each chip’s HBM line (capacity × $/GB); only lines priced before 2027 on the same basis move. Each row opens the calculator pre-filled at the new price.
| Chip | Current BOM | Δ | New BOM | HBM % of cost | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nvidia Rubin VR200HBM4 · CoWoS-LHBM priced 2026 · contract, per stack | $8,900 | +$5,900 | $14,800+66.3% | 50.6% | Model this → |
Not added
- AMD Instinct MI455X — already priced at 2027 (BOM cost)Open at current price →
Sources
- Aju Press — Micron signals longer AI bonanza for Samsung, SK hynix
- Seoul Economic Daily — HBM Prices to More Than Double Next Year as Shortage Persists
- ChosunBiz — Micron forecasts tighter memory supply through 2028, lifting Korea chip outlook
- S-Journal — 삼성·SK하이닉스, 내년 이익구조 재편… 범용 D램 이어 HBM이 끈다
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All benchmarks and data are derived from publicly available sources (earnings calls, press releases, analyst reports, regulatory filings). Figures are estimates for educational purposes only and should not be used as the sole basis for business or investment decisions. Public sources only — no insider data. Generated from the cited reports; verify against the originals before acting. Full Terms & Data Provenance